Submitted by Naomi M on Fri, 11/30/2007 - 05:16.
San Diego pegged as 3rd most-declining housing market
San Diego County tied auto-dependent Detroit as the nation's third-most-declining housing market in the third quarter, according to Standard & Poor's index of 20 metro areas released yesterday.
The 9.6 percent drop in single-family house prices was nearly twice the 20-city decline of 4.9 percent and demonstrated that San Diego has not reversed a downward trend that began in November 2005, according to the S&P tracking data.
Price drop largest in 21 year history of index Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, who helped develop the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, said the 1.7 percent price drop in 20 metro areas from the second to the third quarter was the largest in the index's 21-year history, while the year-over-year national index drop of 4.5 percent was the second consecutive record decline.
“We're in the aftermath of the biggest housing boom in history, so how do we use historical data to judge the outcome?” Shiller said. “We're out of the range of the normal variation in the data, and I take that as very significant.”
Falling prices makes San Diego more affordable
San Diego moved out of the nation's 10 least-affordable housing markets due to lower housing prices and rising incomes. Now San Diego is the 16 least affordable area in the country, according to the trade group’s report.
This is a change from the No. 1, or worst, ranking recorded in the first quarter of 2004. The least affordable housing market, according to the survey, was Napa, as California cities were among nine of the top 10 unaffordable markets in the nation.
For San Diego, 10.1 percent of the homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to local households, up from a dismal 4.9 percent for the same period last year. The national affordability rate was 42 percent. The improvement in San Diego stemmed from the 7.8 percent decline in median prices from $477,000 to $440,000 over the last year and a 6.9 percent increase in household incomes from $64,900 to $69,400.
New construction down 53.9 percent from 2005
In a third measurement of the local housing slump, the Construction Industry Research Board, which monitors California building activity, said the number of houses, condos and apartments authorized for construction in San Diego County for the first 10 months of the year stood at 6,350, down 35.1 percent from 9,786 for the same period last year and off 53.9 percent from 13,782 for the comparable period of 2005.
Julie Meier Wright, president of the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corp., said the long-term picture for San Diego housing remains problematic for employers who find it hard to recruit and retain a work force that cannot afford to buy homes.
Shiller gave the odds of a recession nationally at “over 50 percent,” though other economists have the put the chance of a downturn at one in three.
Source: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/ 20071128-9999-1b28housing.html
The 9.6 percent drop in single-family house prices was nearly twice the 20-city decline of 4.9 percent and demonstrated that San Diego has not reversed a downward trend that began in November 2005, according to the S&P tracking data.
Price drop largest in 21 year history of index Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, who helped develop the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, said the 1.7 percent price drop in 20 metro areas from the second to the third quarter was the largest in the index's 21-year history, while the year-over-year national index drop of 4.5 percent was the second consecutive record decline.
“We're in the aftermath of the biggest housing boom in history, so how do we use historical data to judge the outcome?” Shiller said. “We're out of the range of the normal variation in the data, and I take that as very significant.”
Falling prices makes San Diego more affordable
San Diego moved out of the nation's 10 least-affordable housing markets due to lower housing prices and rising incomes. Now San Diego is the 16 least affordable area in the country, according to the trade group’s report.
This is a change from the No. 1, or worst, ranking recorded in the first quarter of 2004. The least affordable housing market, according to the survey, was Napa, as California cities were among nine of the top 10 unaffordable markets in the nation.
For San Diego, 10.1 percent of the homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to local households, up from a dismal 4.9 percent for the same period last year. The national affordability rate was 42 percent. The improvement in San Diego stemmed from the 7.8 percent decline in median prices from $477,000 to $440,000 over the last year and a 6.9 percent increase in household incomes from $64,900 to $69,400.
New construction down 53.9 percent from 2005
In a third measurement of the local housing slump, the Construction Industry Research Board, which monitors California building activity, said the number of houses, condos and apartments authorized for construction in San Diego County for the first 10 months of the year stood at 6,350, down 35.1 percent from 9,786 for the same period last year and off 53.9 percent from 13,782 for the comparable period of 2005.
Julie Meier Wright, president of the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corp., said the long-term picture for San Diego housing remains problematic for employers who find it hard to recruit and retain a work force that cannot afford to buy homes.
Shiller gave the odds of a recession nationally at “over 50 percent,” though other economists have the put the chance of a downturn at one in three.
Source: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/ 20071128-9999-1b28housing.html
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