Construction and sales of new homes slipped in the Triangle during the first quarter of 2007, according to a report by Houston-based housing information company Metrostudy, which doesn't see the area's home sales accelerating in the immediate future. But the Triangle market is in better shape to weather a slowdown than most, says Ed Dunnavant, director of Metrostudy's North Carolina division, because it hasn't fallen prey to the speculative investing that hit places such as Florida and the Sun Belt.

"It's a much more stable market than the markets that have a lot of investors," Dunnavant said. "We just haven't seen the investors in here. We haven't had the 15 to 20 percent appreciation that was driven by the investors."

Builders started 3,712 new housing units in the Triangle in the first quarter, Metrostudy reported Wednesday. That's down 9.6 percent from 4,097 in the first quarter of 2006.

Single-family housing closings also dipped. Buyers closed on 3,348 units in the first quarter compared to 3,508 a year ago.

The amount of available housing remains high. Single-family inventory, including units under construction, finished vacant units and model homes, was 10,283 units at the end of 2007's first quarter - up from 9,906 units at the end of the first quarter last year.

And in a sign that supply might be starting to outstrip demand, finished vacant inventory was at its highest level in two years. Metrostudy said the Triangle has a 2.9-month supply of finished but vacant units, up from a 2.7-month supply at the end of 2006's fourth quarter and a 2.4-month supply at the end of 2006's first quarter.

Still, Dunnavant said, the overall news is rosy for the Triangle -- an area including Wake, Durham, Orange, Chatham, Johnston, Granville, Franklin and Vance counties for the purposes of the study. The area's unemployment rate of 3.5 percent, lower than both the state rate of 4.5 percent and the national rate of 4.4 percent, is spurring job growth, Dunnavant said, and thus demand for homes. So a slowdown, Dunnavant said, isn't all bad news for the market. "It's going to be flat at a very high rate," he said.

Also Wednesday, Metrostudy released the list of the five subdivisions in the Triangle with the most housing starts at an annual rate in the first quarter.

Carolina Preserve at Amberly in Cary was tops with 230 starts. Glenwood North Townhomes in Raleigh was next with 157, followed by Durham's Elm Grove Townhomes at Hope Valley Farms with 147. Battle Ridge at Chastain in Raleigh was next with 134, and the Martha Stewart-branded Twin Lakes in Cary rounded out the list with 133.

Source:Triangle Business Journal